El Nino may return in 2026 and make planet even hotter - Phys.org
The warming El Niño weather phenomenon could form later this year, potentially pushing global temperatures to record heights.
phys.orgHere’s the latest on El Niño in 2026.
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Key update: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and other forecasters indicate El Niño is likely to develop in mid-2026, possibly as early as May–July, with a tendency to intensify through the following months. This is based on rising sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and model consensus showing a strong event is plausible [sources indicate May–July onset and potential strength].[2][4]
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Global temperature and rainfall implications: El Niño typically raises global average temperatures and alters rainfall patterns. Forecasters expect above-normal land-surface temperatures globally in the near term, with regional variations in rainfall (some regions wetter, others drier) depending on local climate interactions.[4][2]
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Regional impacts and areas of concern:
- Wetter conditions in parts of the southern United States, parts of South America, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia are commonly associated with El Niño.
- Drier conditions are often observed in Australia, Indonesia, and some parts of southern Asia, potentially affecting drought risk and water resources.
- The Atlantic hurricane season can see shifts in activity during El Niño years, though the exact impacts depend on multiple factors and the flavor (location) of the warming.[4]
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Notable caveat: Forecasters caution about the spring predictability barrier, which can make early forecasts less certain. Confidence generally increases after April as models converge and observations accumulate.[4]
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Public and policy relevance for stakeholders in your area (Santa Clara, CA):
- Local temperatures may run above historical norms in peak months, with potential heat stress impacts and higher energy demand.
- California can experience shifts in precipitation patterns, but the strongest rainfall anomalies for El Niño typically manifest in other regions; still, preparedness for extreme weather, heatwaves, and water resource planning remains prudent.[4]
Illustrative example:
- If El Niño strengthens as predicted, you might expect a warmer-than-average year globally, with higher odds of sustained heat events and altered storm tracks during the boreal winter, affecting weather risk management and adaptation planning worldwide.[4]
Would you like a concise briefing tailored to Santa Clara (weather outlook, potential rainfall, and heat risk for the upcoming months), or a summarized set of credible sources with dates for a quick briefing to share with colleagues? I can also provide a short chart-style outline of expected timing and regional impacts.